SHFE tin fluctuates at highs under pressure, with supply bottlenecks intertwined with macro uncertainties [SMM tin midday review]

At the midday session on August 6, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2509) closed at 267,450 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.49% from the previous day's settlement price, with the intraday amplitude narrowing to the range of 266,000-267,700 yuan/mt. During the same period, the LME tin 3-month contract was quoted at $33,350/mt, up 0.15% from the early Asian session, but the gains were curbed by the rebound of the US dollar during the European session.

​​The weak balance in demand continued​​: The traditional electronic solder sector was constrained by the off-season, with weak orders for home appliances and PCs. Downstream enterprises in South China mainly made just-in-time procurement for small orders. Emerging fields such as AI server chip packaging and high-voltage connectors for NEVs supported the demand for high-purity tin. However, the export of PV modules was affected by the "anti-rat race" policy adjustments, resulting in insufficient overall restocking efforts. Social inventory climbed to 9,958 mt, hitting a new high for the year.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract is short-term constrained by the technical resistance level of 268,000 yuan/mt, with cost support existing at 265,000 yuan/mt. LME tin inventory fell to a low of 1,875 mt, but spot discounts widened to $30/mt, reflecting insufficient actual consumption support. In the afternoon, attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar and the stockpiling rhythm of domestic solder enterprises. If macro headwinds intensify, prices may test the support level of 263,000 yuan/mt. It is recommended that investors operate within a light position range and be vigilant about escalating volatility triggered by tariff policies and personnel changes at the Federal Reserve.